JP Morgan has upgraded Vedanta Limited to Overweight from Neutral, citing a structurally tighter aluminium market and a favourable pricing outlook over the medium term.
Apr 07, 2026
Global brokerage firm JP Morgan has upgraded Vedanta Limited to Overweight from Neutral, citing a structurally tighter aluminium market and a favourable pricing outlook over the medium term. The brokerage has raised its target price for Vedanta to INR 850 (from INR 680), implying meaningful upside from current levels.
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The firm highlights that ongoing political tensions in West Asia have triggered disruptions at key aluminium smelters, including Al Taweelah and Alba. These outages could take 9–12 months to normalise, particularly in the event of infrastructure damage, leading to tightening of ex-China aluminium supply. As a result, JP Morgan expects aluminium prices to remain higher for longer, driving a sustained commodity upcycle.
For Vedanta, JP Morgan highlights an attractive risk-reward profile, with the stock trading at under 4x FY27E EV/EBITDA. It expects EBITDA to grow by 49% in FY27, driven by higher aluminium, zinc and silver prices. The brokerage also highlights Vedanta’s differentiated positioning, including its strong dividend yield potential and ongoing vertical integration, which are expected to drive structural cost advantages. The company’s leverage is expected to improve to below 1x net debt/EBITDA, supported by stronger earnings and balance sheet discipline.
JP Morgan’s positive stance reflects growing confidence in Vedanta’s ability to capitalise on a favourable commodity cycle, supported by strong earnings visibility and improving financial metrics. The brokerage has also upgraded Hindalco Industries to Overweight, reflecting a broader positive outlook on the aluminium sector.
